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PPI reports
- Iraq: Fading Oil Targets 24 January, 2012
·        Oil expansion targets at risk from worsening security as political crisis deepens ·        Sectarian violence compounded by growing inter-Shia tensions ·        Provinces seeking regional status will reduce f...
- East Med Gas: Cyprus Weighs Regional Options 19 January, 2012
·        Cyprus broadens cooperation with Israel, Egypt as Noble drilling success continues ·        Officials to discuss joint 15 MTPA LNG project at Vassiliko ·        Lebanon licensing round progress dependent on cred...
- Nigeria: Gasoline Subsidy Compromise 13 January, 2012
·        Abuja, unions looking for price compromise on gasoline subsidy removal ·        Deal expected within days to avert oil strike threat ·        Gasoline stocks dwindling as importers halt deliveries Bottom Line...
- Iran: Compounding MENA Oil Supply Risk 5 January, 2012
·        New sanctions will trim Iran exports depending on implementation, waivers ·        Iran supply losses would compound risks to regional supply elsewhere ·        Hormuz blockade unlikely and unrealistic...
- OPEC: Saudi-Iran Detente 16 December, 2011
 ·        Saudi-Iran rapprochement eased new OPEC deal on 30mn b/d ceiling  ·        Warmer atmosphere in Vienna underpinned by Riyadh diplomacy ·        Gulf producers will adjust output if needed as Libya returns Bo...
- Iran: Collateral Damage 2 December, 2011
·        Iran leadership infighting colours worsening external relations ·        New wave of sanctions likely to impact global oil markets if approved ·        Military options against Iran over nuclear program unlikely...
- OPEC: The Third Way 28 November, 2011
·        Compromise emerging on new output ceiling in line with 2012 30mn b/d call on OPEC ·        Agreement would see some OPEC producers balance market, curb output as Libya recovers ·        Major Gulf produc...
- Egypt Politics: Election Preview 25 November, 2011
Key Points: ·        Muslim Brotherhood set to win 40% of seats as tussle with military deferred ·         Army puts red line around its political and economic interests ·        Public confusion on voting proces...
- Turkmenistan Trip Notes: Gas Marketing Strategy 16 November, 2011
·        Turkmenistan moving slowly on western gas export route efforts ·        Gas reserves upgrades lift country to fourth in global league table ·        Focus for now on TAPI, expansion of exports to China Bo...
- Yemen: When Popular Unrest Goes Flat 9 November, 2011
 Key Points: ·        Shrinking opposition now discredited and losing popular support ·        Neighbouring states move to stabilize Saleh’s government ·        Oil sector still producing 280,000 b/d but activ...
- Saudi Arabia: Succession Balances 26 October, 2011
Saudi succession discussion seeking to balance senior claims with need for experience New appointments at Defence and Interior unlikely to sidestep most senior royals for now International oil policy seen unchanged but reforms to domestic en...
- Libya: Post-Ghadafi Challenges 21 October, 2011
·        Ghadafi death ends armed conflict, but opposition fractures as power struggle looms ·        Oil sector not immune to political challenges, but on track to meet output targets ·        Libyan production at ...
- Macro Oil: Q4 Balance Of Risks 13 October, 2011
·        Oil price resilience points to tight physical market outlook, despite lower demand outlook ·        Saudi Arabia, Gulf producers to meet call on their crude through year end ·        Rising volume of protests fr...
- Libya: Fast Restart 28 September, 2011
Oil restart on track for swift progress as little damage seen to oil infrastructure Libyan officials view 1mn b/d output by end-November, full output by mid-2012 NOC management key to swift restart as workarounds implemented in Sirte Basin Bo...
- Iraq: Shifting Bottlenecks 16 September, 2011
·        Delayed Basra SPMs mean end-2011 Iraq 3mn oil output target to be missed ·        Slow progress on big three mega-projects next concern as shared infrastructure drags ·        KRG-Baghdad relations slump, securi...
- Syria: Slow Burner 9 September, 2011
Key Points: ·        No Knock-out blow from Arab League diplomacy, EU oil sanctions ·        Syrian oil sector already facing severe structural challenges before sanctions ·        Gas shortage looms as Egypt impor...
- Russia: Reinventing IOC Investment 2 September, 2011
Bottom Line: Rosneft’s tie-up with ExxonMobil marks a new chapter in the often difficult history of IOC investment in Russia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of the deal is a significant plus given his authority in the sector and potent...
- Libya: Oil Restart Plans 23 August, 2011
·        NTC officials plan swift resumption of 60% of Libyan oil production, rest within 8 months ·        Fractured opposition movement will make political consensus elusive in coming weeks ·        Rebels’ appreci...
- OPEC: Oil Demand Doubts 18 August, 2011
·        OECD economic growth slump sparks review of global oil demand outlook ·        OPEC producers now more concerned on demand outlook than oil prices ·        No prospect of emergency OPEC meeting before scheduled ...
- The Gulf: Diminishing US Options 8 August, 2011
Key Points: •   US military drawdown in Iraq heralds expansion of Iranian influence in south •   Arab Gulf states have toned down rhetoric in recognition of new political realities •   But potential for Iraqi gridlock, worsening se...
- Qatar: LNG Marketing Update 28 July, 2011
·        Qatar LNG talks for 5 MTPA supply to China back on at Beijing’s request ·        Focus on sales to Germany expected to bear fruit by year-end ·        Qatar aiming to squeeze extra revenue where possible, ...
- Middle East Unrest: Infrastructure Risk 15 July, 2011
·        Gas pipeline attacks boosting regional liquids consumption during peak demand period ·        Jordan planning LNG receiving terminal for Aqaba ·        Libyan rebel oil to restart;  Yemen political deal opens w...
- Macro Oil: Q3 Inflection Point 8 July, 2011
IEA stock release undermined credibility and proving ineffective No restrictions on OPEC oil production after meeting, Saudi at 9.8mn b/d in June OPEC capacity constraints come into focus amid non-OECD oil demand growth Bottom Line: The IEAâ€...
- East Med Gas: Fast Tracking Offshore Exploration 30 June, 2011
 Cyprus, Lebanon race to complete regulatory framework for 2012 offshore licensing rounds Noble to deliver pipeline gas by 2014 as part of plan to site major LNG plant in Cyprus Lebanon will weigh LNG, pipeline export options after meeting ...
- Libya: End Game Scenarios 22 June, 2011
Libya could produce, export some oil from east and southwest in post-Ghadafi scenario Complex transitional politics, score-settling will not allow full oil resumption Prospects for new oil regime, national oil company key to joint venture operat...
- OPEC: Open Divisions 9 June, 2011
Key Points: Saudi Arabia, GCC sidestep OPEC opposition to raise oil output by 1.5Mn B/D OPEC deadlock exposes limited spare capacity outside GCC Organization damaged but common interest likely to build if oil prices weaken Bottom Line:...
- Yemen: Oil, Fiscal Woes Loom Behind Political Chaos 31 May, 2011
Key Points: · Way out of political standoff unclear due to fragmented opposition, civil war fears · Dwindling forex reserves, bleak oil sector outlook raise risk of balance of payments crisis · Succession moves by south will spark federation ...
- OPEC: Output Options 27 May, 2011
Key Points: · OPEC weighs apparent demand erosion and projected Q3 jump in seasonal demand · Gulf producers push for options including formalization of overproduction, ceiling hikes · Murky Libyan politics and production shortfall to com...
- Canada’s Political Shift: Bullish for Oil Sands 18 May, 2011
Key Points: · Harper’s election victory to accelerate approvals for Enbridge, Keystone XL oil pipelines · Progress here will drive a new wave of Asian investment in oil sands projects · Pressure on WTI to increase as Canadian heavy oil do...
- Saudi Arabia: Actions Louder Than Words 11 May, 2011
Key Points: Saudi Arabia welcomes price correction, set to meet rising demand for its oil in May ï‚· Receding political risk premium helping to ease prices but H2 demand jump looms ï‚· OPEC facing difficult meeting in June with Libya, dem...
- Syria Politics: Regime Secure For Now 2 May, 2011
Key Points: Growing unrest unlikely to threaten regime in near term as army loyalty unwavering Muted international response gives Damascus free hand to put down uprising with force Bottom Line: Intensifying unrest ...
- Asia Products: Piracy Costs Hit East-West Arb 28 April, 2011
Key Points: Rising insurance premiums, piracy countermeasures raising East-West freight costs for products Piracy challenge will narrow arbitrage window even when physical margins allow No sign that international community close to integrated...
- Libya Trip Notes: Fighting Focuses on Energy 22 April, 2011
Key Points: Agoco to produce at least 250-280,000 b/d from Sarir/Misla facilities in weeks, not months Rebel gasoline stocks sufficient for 1-2 months but extra product imports required Security in rebel-held areas worsening, rebel forces en...
- Macro Oil: Caught in the Crossfire 6 April, 2011
Key Points: Limited uptake of extra Saudi oil as refiners drawdown stocks amid surging Brent OPEC producers feel they can do little to ease prices, with MENA unrest driving speculation Saudi social spending to be funded from reserves; no chan...
- Syria Politics: The Usual Suspects 31 March, 2011
Key Points: Syrian President makes no concession to protesters’ demands, raising risk of further unrest Low level of oil exports would limit market impact of potential disruption to operations Rising instability would lift contagion risk fo...
- Qatar: Revenue Challenge 23 March, 2011
Key Points: Qatar unlikely to repeat 2010’s LNG train maintenance supply control experiment Pressure on QP companies to reduce cost, maximize revenue to state as infrastructural spending commitments mount QP to take more pragmatic line on n...
- OPEC: Awash With Oil 11 March, 2011
      Friday’s huge earthquake and tsunami in Japan have damaged oil refineries, inundated ports and forced Japan’s nuclear power plants to be taken off-line. At the time of writing, the potential for further tsunami damage to other...
- Middle East Unrest: Oil Output Swings And Surge Capacity 10 March, 2011
Key Points: Oil markets respond to political contagion risk more than Libyan supply outages Producers increasing output in response to high prices, could deploy surge capacity if needed Saudi Arabia weighs further measures to underpin stabili...
- Libya Oil: Saudi Arabia, Iran Offer To Replace Lost Supply 24 February, 2011
With Libyan oil supply now down by at least 1mn b/d or 60%, Saudi Arabia and Iran have offered European refineries additional volumes of crude to replace lost volumes, PPI learns. So far, European refiners have been reluctant to commit to buying in the...
- Middle East Unrest: Pressure Points 15 February, 2011
Key Points: Egypt’s military rulers face uphill battle to maintain transition timetable as economic woes weigh GCC states watch and learn from Egypt strife Yemen top country risk in region as long-standing security and economic challenges e...
- Oil Fundamentals: Bullish Demand Revisions 11 February, 2011
Key Points: New oil demand data and forecasts point to tightening oil market, need for additional OPEC supply IEA, OPEC at variance on short-term demand forecasting for Asia, Middle East OPEC’s conservative demand view prompts sharp jump hi...
- Egypt: Divided Opposition 2 February, 2011
Key Points:Â Post-Mubarak politics to be stormy with army having final say on new government, free elections unlikely Concerns about oil transit through Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline overdone Regional contagion risk limited as regional gover...
- Egypt Politics: Turning Point 28 January, 2011
Key Points: Demonstrators’ direct challenge to regime marks watershed in Egyptian politics Military likely to slow any political evolution if momentum of unrest sustained Threat to Egypt’s energy infrastructure minimal Bottom Line: Ant...
- OPEC: Asia Drives Supply Lift 21 January, 2011
Key Points: Gulf oil producers move to meet extra Asian demand in January Saudi Arabia lifts oil output 360,000 b/d Producers believe price rises are temporary, driven by seasonal and exogenous factors Bottom Line: Gulf OPEC oil producers ...
- East Med Gas: Shifting Supply Map 11 January, 2011
Key Points: Egyptian regional gas exports face competition as Israeli discoveries spark new Levant Basin exploration boom Cyprus to drill offshore in 2011 as Lebanon gears up for new offshore campaign Development costs, non-conventional gas a...
- Canada Oil Sands: Pipeline Politics 6 January, 2011
Key points: Despite environmental opposition, new pipelines for Canada’s oil sands likely to be approved soon, underpinning long-term output growth Emerging competition between China and US for oil sands will drive pipeline progress Canadia...
- West Africa Oil: 2011 Headwinds 23 December, 2010
Key Points: Nigeria elections will delay oil sector reforms and present downside risk to production in 2011 Angolan oil output falling well below capacity on technical problems, rising natural decline rates Gabon abandons bid round plans in f...
- OPEC: Watching Brief 15 December, 2010
Key Points: No OPEC policy response to firm oil prices as weaker 2011 macro outlook weighs Shift to watching brief with no meeting scheduled before June 2011 Saudi Arabia's Ali Naimi likely to be reconfirmed as oil minister in February Bot...
- OPEC: The Ecuador Equation 8 December, 2010
Key Points: OPEC to sit pat again as improved fundamentals underpin stronger oil Still high commercial stocks mean no new supply needed in near term Commodity surge raises inflation risks in 2011 and could spark interest rate rises Bottom...
- Qatar: The Gas Market Paradox 6 December, 2010
Key Points: Fears of worsening 2011 gas glut raised as final Qatari megatrains due online by mid-year GECF to focus on data, technology and investment coordination instead of supply policy Qatar gas marketing to see spot sales, physical swaps...
- Russia Oil: Looming Peak Production Stirs Tax Reform Debate 24 November, 2010
Key Points: Tax regime reform best way to prolong production growth before overall declines start in 2017 Structural challenges to new oil fields means that natural declines from mature fields can only be mitigated by efforts to raise recovery ...
- Iraq: A Work In Progress 18 November, 2010
Key Points: Maliki's political breakthrough points to oil sector continuity Shahristani may remain as oil minister as rivals line up for post Market credibility in focus as IEA fades long-term Iraqi oil production growth Bottom Line: Iraqi...
- Abu Dhabi: Not Panicking About Gas 9 November, 2010
Key Points: Adgas to sustain LNG supply through 2019 despite looming gas deficit ADNOC may prefer consortium to replace ConocoPhillips in Shah sour gas project No prospect for new gas imports in near term, raising demand for liquids Bottom...
- Saudi Arabia: Holding the Line 3 November, 2010
Key Points: No change in Saudi Arabia's preferred oil price range of $70-80/B Riyadh sees price strength above $80 underpinned by falling dollar, non-fundamental drivers Kingdom sees fossil fuels meeting 85% global energy demand growth to 203...
- Saudi Arabia: Managing Growth 27 October, 2010
Key Points: Saudi Aramco still improving oil recovery at major fields including Ghawar, allowing slower depletion than its Gulf peers Energy demand growth under scrutiny although oil and gas will continue to fire baseload power generation for ...
- OPEC: The Hands-Off Approach 15 October, 2010
Key Points: OPEC rollover underlines hands-off approach as prices stay in comfortable range Risks to price seen balanced and weak dollar requires no immediate policy response Iraq reserves upgrade demonstrates political stridency that is not ...
- Algeria Gas: Negotiating The Soft Patch 8 October, 2010
Key Points: Algeria sees long-term gas contracts, price parity with oil key to security of supply, new capacity investment Warns EU call for gas buyer unity could spark greater producer coordination Export capacity expansion delayed as Europe...
- Egypt: LNG Squeeze 29 September, 2010
Key Points: Egyptian plans for energy imports and price liberalization point to gas supply crunch by mid-decade Domestic gas demand growth to reduce gas for Egyptian LNG BG's Gaza Marine gas discovery could hold key to meeting multi-year LNG ...
- OPEC: Don’t Rock The Boat 23 September, 2010
Key Points: October OPEC meeting set for rollover with call for improved output compliance High stocks and inconsistent recovery have not undermined prompt prices No prospect of new formal cuts based on existing agreement Bottom Line: Meet...
- OPEC 2011 Capacity Forecast 13 September, 2010
Key Points: Iraq main mover in OPEC capacity expansion in 2011 after quiet 2010 West African supply growth on hold as Nigeria peace dividend fails, Angola suffers outages Rising Iraqi output will require improved compliance elsewhere in OPEC ...
- Iraq: Bumpy Road 27 August, 2010
Key Points: Lagging political talks still held up by lack of consensus on PM, raising security risk Compromise likely to involve larger, decentralized administration Oil expansion progress slow but steady with capacity to nudge 3mn b/d by end ...
- Iran: Sanctions Bite 12 August, 2010
Key Points: Iran gasoline imports slump 50% as sanctions keep shippers, traders on sidelines Oil production capacity to decline amid constricted investment, weak domestic contracting capacity, insufficient injection gas South Pars gas develop...
- Iran: Regime Preservation 24 July, 2010
Key Points: Sanctions raise pressure on Tehran but divert attention from economic mismanagement and provide cover for painful subsidy reforms Tehran bellicose in Gulf but more inclined to apply regional pressure through proxies elsewhere Ince...
- Russia Oil: Tax Changes Threaten Output Growth 15 July, 2010
Key Points: Finance Ministry plans to raise mineral extraction tax in 2011 will reduce viability of mature oil fields, capping Russian oil production growth and leading to output declines Move will assist federal deficit reduction and give gov...
- Macro Oil: Growth Risks Overshadow Forecasts 9 July, 2010
Key Points: Emerging downside risks to GDP and 2H10 oil demand forecasts likely to prompt downgrades by major forecasters over next few months Growing consensus that back-loaded 2010 growth likely to undershoot Oil price stability defying wel...
- Qatar: Sustainable Development 28 June, 2010
Key Points: Conservation approach sees Shaheen oil expansion on hold as Dukhan field declines QP considering two new condensate splitters to boost distillate exports Periodic LNG outages, maintenance should not surprise as capacity ramps up ...
- Iran: Muted Impact From Looming Fuel Subsidy Reforms 17 June, 2010
Key Points: Iran to cut fuel subsidies from September, but details on timescale and offsets absent Political sensitivity, red-tape likely to see piecemeal implementation in 2010 Gasoline imports unlikely to fall below 100,000 b/d in near ter...
- Saudi Arabia: Ali Naimi Interview - Part Two – Domestic 10 June, 2010
In the second part of an extended interview with PPI, Saudi Minister of Petroleum Ali Naimi outlines the kingdom's commitment to maintaining an outright oil production capacity of 12.5mn b/d and within that, a spare capacity buffer of 1.5-2mn b/d, whil...
- Nigeria: New Leadership, Perennial Challenges 9 June, 2010
Key Points: Nigeria's oil production gains at risk from lack of political progress on amnesty Petroleum Industry Bill faces fresh delays as stakeholders re-open negotiations Political manoeuvring ahead of April 2011 presidential poll to comp...
- Saudi Arabia: Ali Naimi Interview - Part One - International 7 June, 2010
Saudi Arabia remains upbeat on prospects for Asian economic growth despite uncertainty over the impact of the European fiscal crisis on OECD growth and oil demand. In part one of an extended and wide-ranging interview with PPI CEO Bill Farren-Price in ...
- Algeria: Yousfi Returns 2 June, 2010
The appointment for a second time of Algeria's Youcef Yousfi as Energy and Mines Minister shows President Bouteflika is determined to draw a line under the Sonatrach scandal. Key Points: Appointment of seasoned technocrat Yousfi demonstrates Alg...
- Saudi Arabia Economy: Focus On Loans Growth 27 May, 2010
The Saudi government is focusing its economic policy on rebuilding bank lending in 2010 in order to boost non-oil GDP, setting aside for now an uptick in inflation that is driven in large part by rising property rental rates. Key Points: Bank le...
- Europe: The Age of Austerity 16 May, 2010
The absence of credible fiscal consolidation plans in Europe and elsewhere has left markets looking through the latest Eurozone bail-out fund, pulling oil down in a broad re-pricing of risk affecting most asset classes. Key Points: Fiscal consol...
- Syria: Targeting Offshore Gas 12 May, 2010
Faced with a gas deficit by the middle of the decade, Syria is looking to a new offshore bid round for four gas-prone offshore blocks, to be launched in the next 2-3 months. Key Points: Facing a gas shortage by 2016, Syria targeting offshore bl...
- OPEC: The Wait-And-See Approach 11 May, 2010
Major OPEC oil producers are assessing the implications of recent market volatility and its underlying causes, ruling out an early policy response. Key Points: Major OPEC oil producers are taking a wait-and-see approach to price volatility spark...
- PPI Editorial: Credibility Key To Deficit Reduction 10 May, 2010
As the UK body politic grapples with the implications of a hung parliament and the unusual prospect of coalition government, you cannot help the feeling that heads in London are facing the wrong direction. In the early hours of Monday, Eurozone fina...
- NGLs: Dominating Oil Supply Growth 7 May, 2010
Fresh delays to Gulf gas projects could leave the IEA's latest medium term NGL supply forecast looking over-optimistic. Key Points: IEA forecasts suggest NGLs will account for 60% of all oil supply growth in period 2008-2015 But project delays...
- Iran: Pricing, Not Politics Behind Floating Storage 30 April, 2010
Iran's resistance to heavy discounting during the weak demand second quarter has produced a typical seasonal glut of floating storage in the Gulf. Key points: Iran's glut of floating storage involving around 20 VLCCs and a falling share of Chine...
- UK: Boost For Long-Term Gas Contracts 26 April, 2010
Long-term gas contracts, fast-tracked nuclear power and electrification of the car fleet will drive Conservative energy policy in the event the party wins power at the 6 May parliamentary elections. Key Points: Pre-election polling suggests Cons...
- Text of Declaration from GECF Ministerial Meeting in Oran 23 April, 2010
Declaration: X Ministerial Meeting of GECF in Oran April 19, 2010 1. We the Ministers of the Member states of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum have met in Oran, Algeria on April 19, 2010 to exchange views on the latest and mid-term developments ...
- No Surprises From GECF Meeting 20 April, 2010
Despite rising consumer country jitters about the road that leading members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) are heading down, Monday's ministerial meeting in Oran passed off with few surprises, other than broad support for Algeria's well-fl...
- Iran: China Ambivalent On New Sanctions 20 April, 2010
China's preference for dialogue with Tehran over diplomatic pressure means that a new UN resolution against Iran over its nuclear program is unlikely before June. Key Points: China ambivalence on new Iran sanctions and plans for counter-proposal...
- Non-OPEC Supply: Russia Shines 19 April, 2010
As both the IEA and OPEC upgrade their non-OPEC oil supply forecasts for 2010, Russia's strong Q1 performance is under scrutiny, prompting PPI to raise its 2010 growth forecast range to 1-2%. Key Points: Steady, firm oil prices since October 200...
- OPEC: No Simple Price Trigger 7 April, 2010
There will be no knee-jerk policy response to rising oil prices from OPEC until major producers perceive the rally reflects rising demand rather than speculation. Key Points: Oil's foray to new year-to-date highs above $85 will not trigger autom...
- IEF: Building the House 5 April, 2010
Officials from oil producing and consuming countries agreed to reinforce the structural and institutional framework for cooperation in Cancun this week, even though the joint challenges facing them remain daunting. Key Points: IEF to agree chart...
- Algeria: Gas Price Targets 31 March, 2010
Algeria is to propose options for supply restrictions aimed at delivering higher gas prices in the medium to long term, when it hosts the next ministerial meeting of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in April. Key Points: Algeria joins Qa...
- Nigeria: Ajumogobia To Return As Minister Of Petroleum 26 March, 2010
The reappointment of Odein Ajumogobia as Petroleum Minister next week will strengthen Nigeria’s fragile Delta amnesty program and ensure continuity in oil policy. Key Points: Delta native Odein Ajumogobia is to be appointed Petroleum Minister ...
- OPEC: Steady As She Goes 12 March, 2010
OPEC will leave output targets unchanged next week and defer any change in output policy to later in the year as prices remain around desired levels, although a call for better compliance with targets is likely. Key Points: No appetite for chang...
- Iraq: Election Fog Obscures Solid Oil Sector Progress 4 March, 2010
Key points: Solid oil sector progress holds key to election outcome despite security challenges Shift towards secular political coalitions, regional control and likely continuity of senior oil officials will boost pace of oil development Prospe...
